Paul Murray: Seismic shift of public opinion has already put Labor on the back foot

While the two-party political system in Australia has fractured — leaving Labor and the Liberals with all-time low primary vote figures — the question of national leadership remains resolutely binary.

Everyone knows that minor party leaders like Adam Bandt, Pauline Hanson or even the lurid Clive Palmer could never become prime minister. The focus of the contest for the top job in national politics remains on the leaders of the two major parties.

Unless there is a blood-letting within Labor this year, the next Federal election will ultimately be a choice between Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.

Dutton does not have the uncertainty over his leadership that is attached to Albanese because, after a long period of instability in the Parliamentary Liberal Party, which saw the demise of Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull, he has had a remarkably settled tenure.

Maybe it’s because his colleagues’ expectations were low after a bruising election loss mainly credited to his predecessor Scott Morrison’s unpopularity.

The Voice referendum was a gift to Dutton from the blinkered Albanese. And it’s one that keeps giving as the Prime Minister flounders over how to fill the vacuum caused by the failure of his pet project.

Until the crushing defeat of the Yes case took the shine off the Labor government, Dutton had been playing a long, slow game, fearful that venturing too far into the role of aggressive head kicker would reinforce existing negative stereotypes.

And Labor did not take Dutton seriously until the second half of last year, comfortable in its assessment that he was unpalatable to most Australian voters.

Anyone reading last weekend’s Sunday Times would realise there has been a seismic shift in that political position. Former WA Labor State Secretary Patrick Gorman, importantly in this context the assistant minister to Albanese, was given the privilege of an op-ed space usually filled by its political writer.

Gorman made a half-hearted attempt to disguise his message as being about the Government’s continuing work in WA, but it was simply a hit-job on Dutton.

Which is within his job description and somewhat expected given his nature. But it does illustrate how times have changed.

Gorman only got five paragraphs in, having started with a self-aggrandising vignette about an old train that carried WA parliamentarians to Canberra, delivering “the voice of the west” to the “halls of power”, before he asserted that Dutton had never shown any “real love” for this State.

The nub of his attack was the GST deal favouring WA, done by a coalition government that included Dutton, but which Gorman claims the Queenslander did not support.

Gorman’s sole cited source is a book by Malcolm Turnbull. Dinkum.

Those familiar with Turnbull’s writings about past political events — and I have direct personal experience of how tainted his recollections can be, and his unwillingness to correct them — know that axe-grinding is a characteristic obsession.

Two unlikely Liberal MPs acted as Turnbull’s Praetorian Guard while he was PM. Canberra housemates Mathias Cormann and Dutton, neither sharing Turnbull’s soft-pink version of liberalism, were determined to bring some stability to his leadership. It was unearned after his long campaign to undermine his predecessor, Tony Abbott.

But the partyroom finally revolted anyway. It was Dutton who first unsuccessfully challenged the leadership, on Turnbull’s rash invitation, in August, 2018, losing 48-35. Three days later, he gave Turnbull a petition containing the minimum 43 signatures calling for another spill.

The Prime Minister turned up his toes and didn’t contest, but his camp hoped that by encouraging Morrison and Julie Bishop to run in tandem, Dutton could be beaten. Bishop was easily knocked out in the first round and Morrison then triumphed 45-40.

So Turnbull effectively engineered Morrison’s elevation to prime minister. He knew Bishop could never win. That’s a bit of context for Gorman’s choice of Turnbull as his tainted source.

However, the basic truth of Dutton’s assertion may never be confirmed because Cabinet discussions are generally held to be confidential, but obviously not by the likes of Turnbull.

“Later in this column, I will tell you something about his history on the GST that will make every West Australian question his leadership credentials,” Gorman wrote in his sixth paragraph, teasing out what was obviously meant to be his king hit.

This is what Gorman finally delivered: “Mr Turnbull told West Australians it was Mr Dutton who had opposed the GST deal in Cabinet. This is a huge blow to Mr Dutton’s leadership credentials.

“Mr Turnbull told us that when discussing the GST, ‘there remained enormous anxiety around the Cabinet table and especially from Peter Dutton’.”

Several points are obvious. Firstly, if there was “enormous anxiety” among the Cabinet members, Dutton was clearly not alone, but they still agreed to the deal.

Secondly, Dutton in that situation was an elected representative from Queensland, which believed it would be disadvantaged by the GST deal. Still does.

Would Gorman expect a WA Minister in reversed roles to act differently?

Thirdly, and most importantly, it is Labor States that want the GST deal undone. The Labor Treasurers who are leading the charge come from the same party faction as Gorman.

If Gorman is protecting the coalition’s deal, it is from his own party’s predations, not Dutton. The real threat to WA’s GST is from Labor — aided by the Greens.

These are incontrovertible facts that leave Gorman’s toothless attack looking a bit like wasted ink. But there’s more.

Patrick Gorman, middle name Possum, is fairly typical of the new political class, most prevalent in Labor. And Dutton most definitely is not.

Gorman studied social science at Curtin University where he was secretary of Labor’s sub-branch from 2006-8, becoming convenor of the party’s conservation, environment and climate change policy committee the next year. He was just 24.

He went straight from university to working as a research officer for a State Labor MLC and then a Federal one. That led him to Canberra and into the office of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd where he ended up as principal advisor during his disastrous second term.

When Rudd fell in a heap, Gorman went to the key Left union, United Voice, as director of public affairs. In 2015, he became WA Labor State secretary and later arranged himself a by-election rails-run into the seat of Perth when Tim Hammond resigned in curious circumstances.

So if anyone ever wonders what the term political apparatchik means, Gorman’s CV provides one explanation. He even met his wife in Parliament House.

Dutton, middle name Craig, joined the Liberal Party in his teens, and on leaving high school signed up with the Queensland Police, serving mainly as a detective for nearly 10 years.

Police officers are generally admired, but when Dutton’s service is mentioned by his Labor and media detractors, it’s said with a sneer.

He left the force after a car accident in 1998 while chasing an escaped prisoner, landing in hospital with multiple injuries bad enough that they consequently forced him to work reduced hours.

Dutton then went to university, completing a bachelor of business course before joining his father in a family building company.

A year later he stood for the Liberals in Dickson and defeated one of Labor’s brightest stars, Cheryl Kernot, who had defected from the Australian Democrats. His middle name should be George.

Dutton’s performance in a series of tough ministries, where he was unflinching, made him a lightning rod for the Left. GetUp named him “Australia’s most unwanted hard-right politician” in 2019 and flooded Dickson with activists to unseat him. He won on a 1.2 per cent primary swing, even with three other vote-sapping conservative parties running.

This column started by noting that national leadership was essentially binary. Which makes it starkly comparative.

“Albo” was sold to voters as a genuine article. Single mum. Housing Commission upbringing. What we have seen as a national leader is something different.

He’s good at mouthing apologies, but shies from responsibility. Where strength is required, he too often shrinks away. He lacks the intellectual ability to prosecute complex and difficult arguments like Hawke, Keating and even Rudd (fitfully) embraced. So he hides.

Albanese won the election by rolling into a small policy ball, letting Morrison’s confected unpopularity do the work. The proof of that pudding has been in the eating: a government without solutions.

Those who view Dutton negatively do so because of his authenticity. As a hard-nosed Minister, he didn’t sugar-coat issues, taking tough decisions on border control and immigration which he saw as in the national interest.

That’s why the Left — including much of the media — will never accept him. But the Left is a minor part of Australia.

The looming election battle will be fought this year around each man’s authenticity, matching words with deeds.

Labor will need to offer more than Gorman, as Albanese’s surrogate, could muster to stop Dutton’s improving numbers.