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Liberal polling suggests election wipeout unless Libby Mettam hands over reins

Liberal Leader Libby Mettam has been put on notice by “catastrophic” polling that warns the party is on the edge of another election annihilation — even worse than 2021. The West Australian has seen the full results of the opinion poll of 1,093 voters that found the Liberal party has gone backwards in 14 key metropolitan seats since the 2021 Mark McGowan landslide, and is on the precipice of electoral oblivion. The Liberal party currently holds only three out of 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly. A predicted 4 per cent drop would put the Liberal primary vote at a disastrous 31 per cent even in previously blue-ribbon seats like Churchlands and Nedlands that are considered must-wins for the Opposition to have any hope of victory in 2029. Labor would be re-elected with 57 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, and retain an overwhelming majority. The result changed to a 3 per cent swing towards the Liberal party and a 38 per cent primary vote, under an immediate leadership switch to Liberal candidate and Perth Lord mayor Basil Zempilas. The numbers were described as “catastrophic” by one Liberal party source, who said Ms Mettam has been urged to step aside. The research, by Sodali and Co, was not sanctioned by party headquarters but was funded by a Perth business investor, who told The West Australian it was handed to a Liberal candidate almost three weeks ago and has been provided to Ms Mettam. The businessman said he has no links to Mr Zempilas and commissioned the research independently out of concern for the quality of debate and ensuring the “best possible Opposition” to restore Parliament to a “competitive field”. He said the results speak for themselves. “I’m seeking the best outcomes for all West Australians,” he said. “These best outcomes require us to challenge the very one sided and growing and costly ‘anti-business and anti-mining and energy’ debate of recent years... this debate requires a full and complete contest of ideas. “It’s clear Basil Zempilas is the best credentialed person to prosecute this most serious case, for the sake of all Western Australians.” The research by Sodali and Co concluded the introduction of Mr Zempilas as leader “straight away” would deliver wins in Churchlands, Nedlands and Carine, with Bateman and Scarborough and painted a bleak picture otherwise, with no gains likely under Ms Mettam. “The Liberal party trail Labor in all demographics tracked in this survey,” it said. “The WA Liberal Party’s generic party primary vote has fallen in these seats since the last state election.” She has dug in, declaring she “will not resign” as leadership speculation escalated ahead of the final sitting week of State Parliament. According to the unsanctioned polling, that was funded by a Liberal-linked business leader, Roger Cook remained well in front with 45 per cent support ahead of Mr Zempilas on 22 per cent, Ms Mettam on 16 per cent and 18 per cent undecided. But the Liberal party base would be boosted by a switch with 42 per cent of traditional Liberal voters reporting they would be more likely to vote for the party if Mr Zempilas was leader, versus 10 per cent less likely and another 48 per cent unsure, raising hopes they could be convinced during a re-energised campaign. Focus group results, The West understands have been presented to Ms Mettam, said she was “an unknown entity” with “not enough time” to drive the necessary vote. She was called “out of touch” and “only behind”, while Mr Zempilas was viewed as “high energy” and “driven” despite concerns some might see him as “too slick”. “He is seen as honest,” an internal analysis said. Asked why they hesitated to vote Liberal, 15 per cent blamed a lack of policy positions, 10 per cent blamed a “poor team” and 8 per cent blamed the “leader” — including 17 per cent of the so-called “soft voter cohort”. Ms Mettam’s net favourability was put at -5 points with 20 per cent of voters surveyed confessing they have never heard of her, compared with a 97 per cent “soft name ID” and a 75 per cent “hard name ID” for rival Mr Zempilas who had a favourability rating of +45 amongst Liberal voters. It wasn’t all good news for the Perth lord mayor and former TV personality, with 43 per cent of supporters aged under 35 declaring they would be less likely to vote Liberal if he was leader. Ms Mettam accused “cowards commenting in the shadows” of undermining her position and rejected ongoing speculation she could be pressured to step down. “It’s business as usual for us,” she said. “I’m not going to be distracted by polls, I never comment on polls... We’re talking about cowards making comments in the shadows. I’m not distracted by that.” That comment angered Liberal insiders, who said the prospect of an election disaster worse than 2021 should not be business as usual. Mr Zempilas ruled out a challenge two weeks ago, but left the door open to filling a leadership void if Ms Mettam resigned. “That is a pretty left field hypothetical,” he told The Sunday Times. A partyroom meeting is scheduled for Tuesday, before the final sitting week of State Parliament but there appeared to be little appetite for a spill among the party’s 10 current MP’s when the existance of polling was unconfirmed. Ms Mettam refused to comment on “hypothetical” polling two weeks ago, and insisted she would serve a full term in Parliament as Member for Vasse. “What a joke,” she said. “I didn’t take on this role two years ago to give up on my position as leader on the last lap, I’m absolutely committed... “My commitment is to be the leader in the lead up to the election, following the election and for a better future for Western Australians,” she said.

exclusiveLiberal polling suggests election wipeout unless Libby Mettam hands over reins

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Liberal polling suggests election wipeout unless Libby Mettam hands over reins