Sheep prices soar as flood, drought, exports boost market

WA sheep prices have surged to four-year highs but industry analysts say it is unlikely they will reach the records of more than $400 per head recently achieved in the Eastern States.

National sheep and lamb prices have climbed sky-high in recent weeks, with a Victorian farmer setting a new national record for heavy lambs on May 28 when he sold 47 White Suffolk-Merino lambs to a top of $410 per head.

Wes Preston, who farms at Jeparit, 370km north-west of Melbourne, was the third farmer to break a national record in 24 hours after heavy lamb sales fetched prices of $400 at Ballarat and $403 at Horsham.

His second pen of lambs made $400 and $409 — well up on his prior record price of $299.

The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator jumped 150¢, or 2 per cent, in the week ending Friday, May 30, to break through the 1000¢/kg cwt barrier for the first time in history.

But it has been a different story in WA, where demand has been high but prices much lower — with heavy lambs topping $237 at the Katanning Regional Saleyards on June 4, and $225 at Muchea Livestock Centre on June 10.

But industry veteran Dean Hubbard, the new head of markets at Agora Livestock, said WA farmers would be “very happy” with the prices being achieved in the west.

He said WA lamb prices were being driven by a perfect storm of rain in New South Wales, dry conditions in South Australia and Victoria, and strong demand from lot feeders and processors.

WA’s dwindling sheep flock, and likely low lambing numbers, will also continue to play a part in keeping prices high.

“Our local prices for the next 12-18 months will be driven by demand outstripping supply,” Mr Hubbard said.

“How much improvement we will have in WA . . . I would have thought we have reached the top end here.

“But demand looks very strong, and I don’t think any local farmers would be complaining about sheep or lamb prices.”

Mr Hubbard said WA farmers were in the box seat with increasing demand for lambs, and limited supply.

“With the significant decline in the flock . . . and the increase in processing, we are reaching a period with a lot of demand and limited supply,” he said.

“We are as close to an undersupply as what anyone has seen in recent years.

“A lot of farmers who have made the decision to stay with stock will be financially rewarded.”

The price boom comes at a time when WA’s sheep flock is declining, in part because of a lack of confidence about the Federal Government’s plan to ban live sheep exports by May 2028.

WA’s flock has declined from 12.5 million to 9.4 million head during the past three years, while sheep and lamb turnoff reached 6.5 million in 2024 — a 13 per cent jump from 2023.

There was also a significant increase in the number of sheep sold interstate last year, rising from 249,000 to 884,000.

Mecardo analyst Angus Brown said while demand for lamb would remain strong nationally, prices were unlikely to move below 850¢/kg through spring.

Historically, the nation’s lamb market has never sustained a big run above 900¢/kg, and has only gone above 950¢/kg for single weeks.

“Looking back at the last time we had a significant spike, in 2019, we saw prices peak in early June, before steadying and having another run in mid-July,” Mr Brown said.

“New-season lambs are a long way off, so we could reasonably expect a similar pattern.

“Looking forward, extreme winter lamb prices have historically encouraged spring lamb producers to get lambs off early.

“The problem is that the late autumn break will likely see a similar supply pattern to last year, possibly at even lower levels, and that kept prices close to winter peaks.”

Two of WA’s biggest abattoirs, WA Meat Marketing Cooperative at Katanning, and Fletchers International at Narrikup, are expected to close for seasonal maintenance later this month — causing supply to contract.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics and Sciences forecasts lamb saleyard prices to rise 4 per cent in 2025-26 to 841¢/kg cwt, up from 809¢/kg in 2024-25, with the 2025-26 forecast 3 per cent above the 10-year average in real terms.

Meanwhile, ABARES has also forecast average mutton saleyard prices to rise by 10 per cent in 2025-26 to 441¢/kg, up from 401¢/kg in 2024–25. The 2025-26 forecast is 17 per cent below the 10-year average in real terms.